The other night, my wife and I made a friendly wager, perhaps a foolish one on my part. She has long been a fan of Stephanie Meyer’s Twilight series and predicted, rather confidently, that the new Hobbit film would never beat out the latest Twilight movie at the box office. I told her she was crazy. Of course The Hobbit would win, after all, it’s one of the bestselling books of all time. Only books like the Bible beat it out, right?
At that moment the wager was on! Was I a fool, or will Tolkien’s masterpiece save the day? Only time will tell, but here’s what statistics may suggest. The Hobbit is believed to have sold more than 100 million copies. Of course, it’s been out since 1937. Breaking Dawn, the fourth novel in the Twilight Saga, is believed to have sold at least 10 million copies, and it’s only been around since 2008. So, if The Hobbit has been out about 75 years, that would amount to an annual sales average of a little more than 1.3 million copies. Breaking Dawn may be averaging at least 2.5 million copies annually in just four years! (Thinking I’m in trouble.)
- Post a comment here by noon (EST) on Sunday, Dec. 16, 2012, with a prediction of whether The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey will out-gross The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 at the U.S. domestic box office by the end of The Hobbit’s third week (which will be Dec. 28-30, 2012); and predict by how much (in U.S. dollars) The Hobbit will exceed or fall short of Breaking Dawn Part 2 during this same time frame (i.e., the “margin of victory”).
- The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn: Part 2 grossed $254,598,866 at the end of its third week according to Box Office Mojo, which will be our official source for domestic box office data. This is the number The Hobbit will have to beat.
- In addition to posting your prediction, you must be a “follower” of this blog, which means you’ve “joined this site” by clicking the “Join this site” button on the right-hand column.
- The whole thing is free, like my blog. If you win, you must be able to send me an email address and have a regular street address (no P.O. Boxes) for shipping purposes. Books can only be sent to addresses in the United States and Canada.
- The winner – i.e., the person who predicts which film will have the highest domestic box office gross at the end of its first 3 weeks and comes closest to predicting the margin of victory – will win the book giveaway, either a copy of The Twilight Saga Breaking Dawn Part 1: The Official Illustrated Movie Companion, or The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey Visual Companion, depending on whichever film prevails. In the event of a tie, the winner will be chosen by a random drawing.
BJB
December 13, 2012 - 10:23 am ·We predictses The Hobbit by $11 million, Preciousss, and we will win the book for ourselfs, yes! Nice hobbit!! Nasssty, vicious Twilight.
HelenR
December 14, 2012 - 6:02 am ·I have to go with Twilight by $8M!
HelenR
December 14, 2012 - 6:05 am ·But if I win, I'd rather have a copy of The Hobbit.
10,000 Days
December 15, 2012 - 9:06 am ·Twilight by 22 million. It has the female demographic (from teens to adult) plus all the guys that they dragged with them to the movie.
Tina C
December 17, 2012 - 11:26 pm ·I'm hoping you're underestimating the fanboys (or in my case fangirl). I saw the LOTR movies multiple times in the theater. I did get dragged to see the latest Twilight, but have been looking forward to the Hobbit for a while – only a funeral stopped me from going last weekend. I know I'm too late to make a prediction, but wanted to give you some hope that Hobbit will win.